Year 2014 will be the continuity of year 2013 on the economic, financial and social plans. It will look like in the year 2013 while becoming more marked and by deteriorating because it is characterized by the continuation of the crisis/recession/transfer of year 2013.
Indeed, we are always in crisis systematic and structural. This year of 2014 will know others major events and deep transformations. These will have repercussions until 2015 and well beyond. The programs in the course of "restructuring" of the world Economy will reach their ends only much later with numerous economic, social, financial, military consequences, we suspect it.
The words were drafted at the beginning of the year 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013 are always effective and accessible by the following links :
. YEAR 2009 : http://www.omggwo.com/new/english/year%202009
. YEAR 2010 : http://www.omggwo.com/new/english/year%202010
. YEAR 2011 : http://www.omggwo.com/new/english/year%202011
. YEAR 2012 : http://www.omggwo.com/new/english/year%202012
. YEAR 2013 : http://www.omggwo.com/new/english/year%202013
Year 2014 can be summarized in the following way :
. the drinkable water shortage and all its consequences.
. climate change disrupting any social and economic life.
. a continuation of the population growth pulling imbalance.
. an increase continues prices of foodstuffs causing a shortage.
. the distribution of the famine in the world having for consequences of the riots.
In fact, the geopolitics of the food darkens the geopolitics of the oil because the world consumed more food than it did not produce it, that is, any more of six times over eleven consecutive years ! (Report UNO - USA - November, 2012)
The world reserves of cereal reached dangerously low levels of production because of the drought in the United States, the worst for more than 50 years, as well as by the lack of precipitation in Russia. So it favors the rise in prices of the corn, the soya, the wheat and can cause disorders, riots, even armed conflicts in several places of the world.
Year 2014 will know a major food crisis. This phenomenon was already known in 1974.
Furthermore, this food crisis deteriorates more in the Middle East and in Africa and the living conditions of the refugees in these Regions are catastrophic ! ( In 2012, more than 870 million people suffered from the world hunger, Report FAO - Italy - November, 2012).
From then on, the break between the demand of food and the supplies and the reserves worldwide is inevitable : previous Civilizations were destroyed by the food shortages and we are on the same way. The prices of staples such as the wheat and the corn could double and would pull disastrous consequences for the poor populations. So, every country will have to manage by itself.
See in this connection our Forecasts Notes of March 26, 2009, Horizon 2010 - on 2030 by the following link :
. FORECASTS NOTES - HORIZON 2010-2030 of March 26, 2009 :
In the analysis of the causes of the hunger, one of the most murderous mechanisms is the current and future speculation on basic food, corn, rice and wheat. These cover 75 % of the world consumption. In 2007-2008, the big speculators lost 85.000 billion dollars $US of patrimonial value in them Financial stock exchanges. As a result, they turned to the stock exchanges of raw, in particular agricultural materials. They thus realized "astronomical" profits ! And this in a completely legal way ! From then on, world market prices "burn" and this speculation on the Stock Exchange on basic food cause one of the essential and main reasons of collective massacres. So :
. the price of the corn increases by 93 % in 18 months.
. the ton of wheat miller doubles in 12 months (271,- Euros).
. the ton of Philippine wheat increases by 113 % in 12 months.
The impact of this speculation is enormous in the world of shanty towns. Example : in Lima in Peru, from now on the rice is sold itself in tumblers, and in the evening it is some grains which float …
The speculators should be translated in front of a Court because it is " a crime against Humanity " ! Because this " market of the hunger " is above all structural and systematic !
The budgets of contributions to the World Food Program (WFP) melt away while the world hunger explodes : this budget is 6 billion dollars $US in 2008 and there are not more than of 2,8 billion dollars $US today ...! Furthermore, thousands of hectares of arable land, mainly in Africa, are swiped to produce raw materials of biofuels while the whole population is underfed. This "hunger" in the world could be summarized by :
. the food wasting : a third of the food in the world is wasted or lost every year.
. the grabbing of lands and the production of agrocarburants : the cornering of farmlands in Africa by foreign States and Multinationals raise problem for the survival of these countries (90 % of the market of cereal are shared by four Companies : Archer Daniels Midland (ADM), Bunge, Cargill, Louis Dreyfus).
. the disposed seed heritage : non-existence of an agricultural policy leaning on the diversification of the food seeds, the support for the creation of varieties, the integration of the factors of durability in all the agricultural policies.
In brief, it threatens to lead countries to the chaos : this situation complicates more with the new data of climate change ...!
On the basis of these main elements, we cannot ignore what it takes place in the Arab world, in the Middle East and in Africa, in the full "boiling", beyond the Economy of the Oil and the current food crisis. See in this connection by the following link :
. OMG S.A. / GWO INC. - ORGANISATION : http://www.omggwo.org/english/geogareas.html
This link allows to consult a daily Press review updated automatically 24H/24H and 7J/7J for every country.
On the other hand, the major part of countries, among which those of the European Union, are taken in by the throat by financial markets and national debt : a part of this one is "illegitimate" and should be cancelled because by consequences, the organized austerity policies amplified the phenomenon of the crisis/recession/transfer and they are going to continue all year round on 2014.
Choices and decisions which are imperative of urgency are :
. to cancel the " illegitimate debt " ?
. to cancel the debt or to tax the capital ?
. cancel the debt in the profit and to the advantage of whom ?
. to cancel the debt would it be a socially inequitable measure ?
. to cancel the debt and the disparity of the fortunes would not they be the only problems ?
The Financial Institutions are at the origin of the crisis/recession/transfer. They speculate on the debts of States and are paid off at the price of a wild austerity : the majority of the population undergo a rough offensive against a series of acquired business and social laws with difficulty.
See in this connection our Forecast Note on 2013 by the link :
. YEAR 2013 : http://www.omggwo.com/new/english/year%202013
This situation is going to continue to engender in 2014 :
. regional and international conflicts.
. devastating consequences for the world Economy.
. a continuation in the increase of the price of raw materials.
. a continuation in the speculation on values such as the gold.
. the continuation of the economic, financial, social crisis with appearance of riots.
Furthermore, we shall attend in :
. the fall of the real Economy.
. the continuation of the fall in prices of the real estate (implosion of the real estate market).
. the total disorder in the field of the speculation.
From then on, when are :
. the attempt to decrease the level of the debt in the "Eurozone" below the threshold of 30 % of the sovereign debt, to try to reduce potentially the influence of the international financial markets ?
. the attempt to stimulate the growth of the "Eurozone" by means of structural investments in infrastructures (education, research, health, public transport, etc.) ... ?
. the attempt to reduce the running of military expenditures burdening the National Budgets ?
Would not it "be simpler" to cancel the mentioned debt higher ?
And the military confrontation in the Middle East by Major powers by interposed countries ? Nothing is settled in fact if it is not attempts " to save time " : For whom ? For what ? Why ? To be more ready and in a strong position at the appropriate moment ? See in this connection :
Defense of the Thesis of Doctorate on the Middle East of October 08th, 2013 :
"Defense of a Thesis in the School of the High Studies in Social Sciences - Paris - FRANCE, in 10/08/2013"
And the summary of the Thesis defense of Doctorate on the Middle East of October 08th, 2013 :
"Summary of the Thesis defense of Doctorate on the Middle East in the School of the High Studies in Social Sciences - Paris - FRANCE, 10/08/2013"
Finally, and in consideration of what has just been expressed previously, the economic, social, financial situations, within the framework of this crisis/recession/transfer, cause an acceleration of the process deepening the oppositions between rich Regions and poor Regions within the States wherever that they are and more particularly within the European Union woman pulling a destruction of these. This current dislocation is the resultant of a long work for decades basing on the ethno-regionalism and operated gradually thanks to European oligarchical authorities, to speak only about those, and who sees his close outcome on the occasion of this crisis/recession/transfer. But this is another subject !
On the other hand, the countries of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) are going to continue to make speak about them by different performances so economic as social with regard to those U.S.A., of Canada, the European Union, to quote that they. Furthermore, the World Trade Organization (WTO)((WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION)) warns States against the increase of the protectionism (Biannual Report on the evolution of the trade in the countries of G20 - 18.12.2013 - WTO (WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION) - USA). Indeed, the Governments of countries rich as those of the emerging countries such as India, China, Brazil, besides the U.S.A. are going to deteriorate the measures of protectionism by trying to pull their economies of the game to remedy in their rates of extremely raised unemployment. This will have for consequences which the customs obstacles and taxes compulsory for the imports will arouse retaliatory measures on behalf of their partners and which, eventually (later), everybody will be losing in the slowing down of the world exchanges.
In other words, this long-term economic stagnation ("secular stagnation") besides the United States, it will also concern Europe even Asia. This long phase of apathetic growth and strong unemployment will engender a no growth even negative.
The International Monetary System must be absolutely reformed in-depth …
In conclusion, year 2014 will be the worse than the previous ones and graver still than year 2013 because we are in the acceleration of the crises and the breaks : economic, financial, political, social, strategic, geostrategic, sanitary, ecological, also military, etc...! While being in the "crossroads".
These "main socioeconomic indicators" confirm such as :
. the continuation of banking bankruptcies.
. the continuation of the disappearance of certain economic activities.
. the continuation of the temporary job and/or precarious creation job.
. the continuation of the mad drive of the military expenditures for the benefit of whom ? And of what ?
. the continuation of the increase of the unemployment rate by the job cuts, in particular and/or the not job creation, this always at the world level and not by relationship in cases of specific countries.
This period of crisis/recession/transfer is far from being finished, what we already announced several years ago, and will be reduced gradually in time, business sectors by business sectors, because compound of multiple crises appropriate to each of them both on the plans systematic and structural and cyclical !
These crises can really plan thanks to signals, even low, heralds of changes to come, the whole is to get ready for it and especially to give itself the ways to anticipate, not inevitably on the financial plan … States, Companies, Companies should integrate these warning signals into their ways of functioning rather than "to break" the competent individuals capable of deciphering the concepts of anticipative low signals, both on the plans epistemological and philosophic that practical and operational : fields of application, actors and tools, stakes and perspectives, relevance, etc...!
Never let us forget to ask ourselves the essential question: what is the impact of the crisis / current recession / transfer on the real Economy ... ?
Good and a Happy Year of 2014 !
January 02 nd, 2014
Dr. Marc LAMBINET, Ph.D
Observatoire Mondial Géostratégique S.A. Luxembourg