HORIZON 2010 - 2030
By Dr. Marc LAMBINET, Ph.D - March 26, 2009This Note has for object to try to encircle a reality on the problems with which will be confronted our Federal Government in a horizon from 2010 till 2030. These are not certainly exhaustive but will arise with more and more of accuité, especially if there is at present 6,8 billion human beings on the earth and if the world population should reach the 7 billion individuals in 2012, then to exceed 9 billions in 2050, according to the data published by the UNO, March 11, 2009. The Third Three-year Report of United Nations - New York - The USA). These problems can be differentiated according to the following way :
1) The main factors contributing to the breaks of balance :a) The Climate : The world temperature could grow from 1 to 6 degrees before 2100. Furthermore, the current climate change announces big turnovers, these threatening water ressources. Financial means invested in this fight against this climate change serve only for trying to reduce green effect gas, and not to allow to adapt itself to the new climatic conditions! Certain sea currents such as "Gulfstream" can change route, it already occurred in the past, and it is thus whole regions which can know a climate of "glacial" type.
b) The Demography : Every year, it is 80 million inhabitants that are added on the planet. The overpopulation on the planet engenders various crises lived during these last years and not ended that they are food, energy, environmental, economic and financial. They can be settled only thanks to supplementary efforts of the international community in the file of the water ! Now, it is this overpopulation among numerous problems that contributes to a world crisis of the water.
c) The energy : The growth of the world consumption in energy would be 60 % before 2030, now it is only 20 % of part of the produced energy in the world which results of the hydro power.
Only in industrial nations, the cost of the modernization of infrastructures bound to the water represents 200 billions the US / year. So, the demand in energy increases with regard to the demographic growth rate and the takings of water necessary for the energy production increase with regard to this one. (1)
2) The consequent explanatory variables of these breaks of balance :a) The increasing water requirements : The humanity is dependent on some water and this resource is fragile. Every year, the growth expected from water requirements would amount to 64 billions of m3. (2,5 %: portion of available fresh water at present on the whole water on the planet). More than a billion human beings still have no access to the drinking water !
This resource is in the center of the majority of the problems lived in the poorest countries of the planet and it is only hardly 6 % of the international assistance which is dedicated in the water at the world level. This capital dedicated to the problems bound to the water, is insignificant by comparison with financial means invested against the current economic and financial crisis, besides those invested to fight against green effect gas emissions !
The World Bank considers in 80 countries, representing 40 % of the global population, the number of countries suffering from water shortage and from unsatisfactory hygiene. The water requirements of the humanity increase twice as fast that the world population: " the blue gold " could become a political and economic major problem, thus a stake for decades to come.
b) The famines : These are due to the drought and to the climate change but also to the wild exploitation of the resource in water and to the mismanagement of this one.
Examples: from 1000 to 20 000 liters of water are needed to produce 1 kilo of meat and 400 to 2000 liters of water to produce 1 kilo of wheat. The food consumed by the wealthy populations requires more and more big quantities of water.
At the end of the year 2008, the number of underfed persons in the world is 963 millions, that is almost 1 billion starving men! During the World Summit of the Food (Supply) in 1996, the "Big" took the solemn commitment for the Objective of the millennium " to reduce by half, before 2015 (that is 19 years later), the number of persons going hungry on the planet! (2)
The quasi-totality of this population going hungry (907 million persons) lives in said countries " in development ", mainly in Asia and in Africa. (Seven countries collect to them only 65 % of the underfed: India, China, the Democratic Republic of Congo - Ex: Zaire, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Pakistan and Ethiopia).
It would be necessary " investments in the poor countries of at least 30 billion US dollars a year for the agriculture and the social welfare ".
c) The development of the diseases and the epidemics : The recent current event ( SARS) reminds us that new epidemics (SARS, AIDS) could cause at any time millions of deaths (as the Spanish flu which killed 21 million persons in the world in 1918), even threaten the survival of our civilization.
So, in the western countries, the impact of the infectious diseases is to be put in perspective because they would be the cause of only 1 % of the deaths, against 43 % in developing countries, according to a study of the OMS realized in 1998. These infectious diseases kill more that the wars and the natural disasters. (3)
The malnutrition and the problems of hygiene represent 80 % of the diseases bound to the water in developing countries. Furthermore, it is 67 % of the world population which will have no access to adequate sanitary installations in 2030.
Certain epidemics reach such proportions as they weaken and threaten the economy of whole countries! (Ex: AIDS, malaria).
3) The main energy-consuming countries, of natural resources and water are :India, China, the United States, Pakistan, Japan, Canada.
a) Of energy : Iceland, Scandinavia, the United States, Canada, Australia, Luxembourg, Belgium.
b) Of natural resources : Industrial nations, India, China, Pakistan.
c) Countries rich in water : about ten countries are divided 60 % of the renewable natural resources of fresh water of the world : Brazil, Russia, Canada, Indonesia, the United States, Bangladesh, China, India, Vénézuéla, Colombia.
d) Poor Countries in water : Kuwait, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, Malta, Libya, Singapore, Jordan, Israel, Cyprus.
Conclusion :So, under the influence of climate change, of overpopulation and of the increase of the standard of living conjugated, water supply undergoes an unprecedented exploitation on the whole planet. This puts in danger the balance in the world, threatening not only the well-being of the populations but also the long-term Peace: we cannot speak any more about growth ?
If we add the consequences of the accaparation of the water ressources of certain powers with regard to countries possessing these but not mastering inevitably the techniques of exploitation for lack of Fund and\or Knowledge, we shall attend major regional conflicts: it is already the case for numerous geographical zones beyond Politics and Religion ?
(1) To generate 1 MWh of electricity, it is necessary :
- from the coal, 2 m3 of the water.
- from the nuclear power, 2,5 m3 of the water.
- from the oil(petroleum), 4 m3 of the water.
and for the shale oil? From 20 to 45 m3 of water ! See needs in Alberta ! )
(2) This figure of 963 million underfed persons in 2008, represents an increase of 40 millions with regard to 2007, year herself (itself) having registered(recorded) a progress of 75 millions with regard to period 2003-2005 ?
(3) They are responsible about 15 million deaths every year, that is more than a quarter of the deaths in the world. Five diseases belong to them only responsible for 80 % of the deaths: the infections respiratory - pneumonia, flu ? (3,9 million deaths a year), the AIDS (2,9 millions), the diarrheic diseases (1,9 millions), the tuberculosis (1,6 millions) and the malaria (1,1 millions).
Source of Figures : World Health Organization. OMS - Geneva - SWISS - on 1998.
- The Third Three-year Report(Relationship) of United Nations - UNO - New York - the USA - March 2009
- Annual Report of FAO - UNO / ONU ? Roma - ITALY - December on 2008
- Report of National Intelligence Council - NIC - Washington DC - the USA - December on 2008
Strategic Implications of Global Health
- Report of National Intelligence Council - NIC - Washington DC - the USA - November on 2008
Global Trends on 2025 : A Transformed World
- Report of DAS by the Minister of Defence - Paris - FRANCE - on 2003
Geostrategic Prospectives for the next 30 Years