Year 2013 will be the worse than year 2012 because it is characterized by a continuation of the crisis / recession of year 2012. This year of 2013 will know major events which will have repercussions until the course of the 2014s and 2015 : NOTHING is ended ... !
See our comments drafted at the beginning of the year on 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 ... by the following links :
. YEAR 2009 : http://www.omggwo.com/new/english/year%202009
. YEAR 2010 : http://www.omggwo.com/new/english/year%202010
. YEAR 2011 : http://www.omggwo.com/new/english/year%202011
. YEAR 2012 : http://www.omggwo.com/new/english/year%202012
For year 2013, we cannot present that a " realistic Forecast "; nevertheless for years we supply to our Readers of Economics Forecasts Notes, and not "scenarios" because not being in the cinema and the "show biz"; those who claim to show two scenarios, the one "pessimist" and the other "optimist" are :
. or, incompetent !
. or, not sure of the whole of what they present to the public, by trying " to flood the fish "...
But, let us get to the point because this goes out of our frame ... !
This "not cyclical ", " but structural" crisis / recession and "systematism" engenders all year round 2013 and beyond ... :
. a total uncertainty in the market of the crude oil.
. a continuation in the increase of the price of raw materials.
. devastating consequences for the world Economy.
. regional and international conflicts.
. rivalries for the obtaining of markets and the exploitation of raw materials.
The United States, in spite of their structural difficulties, remain the First world Power on the financial, military, cultural and economic plans while posting (showing) a national debts of more than 18 000 000 000 000 of dollars $US, for a total debt bordering 56 000 000 000 000 of dollars $US, according to the official figures of the national clock of the debts of the United States.
In the reading of this gigantic debt, we can assert that :
. there is a total financial war: the system of petrodollars collapses because of the monetary diversification in the international commercial and oil exchanges.
. the total war threat in the Middle East is omnipresent, for the previous reason because the U.S.A. cannot accept it ! Formal: there is an escalation in the Persian Arab Gulf !
. the previous threat implies obviously the World War III ..., where there, we can speak about " likely and possible scenario " ...! There are vital threats against the system of petrodollars ...!
. the ascendancy of dollars $US as international reserve currency is indisputably damaged.
. the main countries, such as China, Russia, India, Japan, etc., adopted a system of energy and commercial exchanges centered on their respective currencies.
The question of the oil is closely linked to that of dollars US, because the status of dollars as world reserve currency depends widely on the decision of the OPEC to denominate the purchases of the oil of the OPEC in dollars $US !
Gold, the oil always constitutes the geostrategic raw material par excellence for the planet: Russia is equipped with the first world oil company in the fourth quarter 2012 (Rosneft absorbed TNK-BP, having acquired the main part of Yukos, then having concluded a joint-venture with Exxon-Mobil). Russia which already has with Gazprom of the first world gas company, has from now on the first world oil company ...! In fact, the control of these two energy and geostrategic raw materials means " choking " the western ascendancy, and open the way to one New World Order chaired by Russia ! It does not stay more than the inlay of Russia in the OPEC and the oil cartel would so control more than half world production and the largest part of the potential reserves. So, with such an influence, the countries of the OPEC could decide in their way of the price that the buyers of the other countries of the world would not have more than to pay ...
So, we cannot ignore what it takes place in the Arab world, in full "boiling", beyond the Economy of the Oil and the problems of Defense. See in this connection by the following link :
Thus, this crisis / recession strong> generated by a wild liberalism, a "globalization-rolling mill", which leaves no place with the most low (weakest), is extremely quickly transformed there social crisis : the modest, whatever are their geographical and/or religious origins, serve only variables of adjustment in times of crisis . (See our Projected Note of year 2012).
Indeed, in the analysis of the following socioeconomic factors :
. the " class of the rich " is winning its war !
. the victims fight between them, instead of " knocking down the table " !
. the solidarity "loses ground" everywhere !
. the financial crisis changed in crisis social, then in crisis of civilization !
. the humanity looks for itself and the war of all against all is there !
It is enough, among others, to analyze the planning of the CONPLAN 8022 : it is the opening of a military Pandora's box. (Concern Iran and North Korea, in particular). See by the following link :
On the other hand, although this crisis began since 2000 (to See our " Forecasts Notes " previous), since 2007-2008 the big central banks (ECB-EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, Bank of England, FED in U.S.A ., Bank of Switzerland, etc.) give the absolute priority, to try to avoid a collapse of the private banking system. Indeed, contrary to the prevailing view, the main risk threatening banks is not the suspension of the sovereign debt by a State ! None of the banking bankruptcies since 2007 was caused by such a non-payment. States organized a banking rescue, not because of a suspension of payment on behalf of an over-indebted State, but by the necessity of getting out of trouble banks, since 2007, in the assembly of private debts which they had gradually built since the big deregulation (begun in the end of 1970s and finished during 1990s !).
So, the balance sheets of these private banks are always full of so many doubtful assets ... And thus, it goes of said assets "toxins" representing " real time bombs ", in assets "not liquids" which cannot nor be resold or sold on financial markets, or still in assets " in the overrated values ", that is, by assets the value of which is totally overrated in the banking balance sheets ...
See for the continuation of the events during year 2013 ! (Example: the French-Belgian Dexia bank, very large-sized, three times on the verge of bankruptcy in four years; in October, 2008, October, 2011, October, 2012 ; also, in Spain, the near-bankruptcy of Bankia was caused by doubtful financial plans and not by any non-payment on behalf of a State !).
In summary, since 2008, and it is not finished, this scenario repeated more than around thirty times, and every time public authorities put themselves systematically in the service of deprived banks by financing their rescue by the public loan. The sovereign debts have nothing to do with it !
This is going to continue to pull 2013 :
. a pursuit of banking bankruptcies.
. a pursuit of the fall of the real estate price.
. an explosion in the sector of the production.
. a disorder in the field of the speculation.
. a fall of the real economy.
By consequences, the organized austerity policies and which amplified the phenomenon of the crisis/recession are going to continue all year round on 2013. (By continuing over the recessive-depressive period in which the economy of the most industrialized countries is sunk at present).
Let us call back for the record " the implementation of a strict financial regulations following the crisis of the 1930s ": the Crash of Wall Street in October, 1929, the enormous banking crisis of 1933 and the prolonged period of economic crisis in the United States and in Europe of the 1930s, brought the President of U.S.A ., Franklin Roosevelt, then Europe, to regulate strongly the financial sector to avoid the repetition of grave stock market crises and banking ...
Affair to be followed !
The financial crisis of 2007 allowed banks, nevertheless guilty of reprehensible actions and grips of mindless risks, to benefit from massive injections of funds through expensive and numerous rescue plans; since 2008, the banking rescues did not result in more responsible behavior.
" A stabbing music " of the crisis of the sovereign debts was intoned to impose rough sacrifices to the peoples! And impose a crisis on the dramatic social consequences !
Stock exchanges continue "to yoyoter" and will continue their dives: stock exchanges in Asia, in the United States and in Europe, tumble in front of growing fears of the convincing slowing down of the world Economy and the pursuit of the recession and the debts generalized by States !
Whether it is the value of the gold, the parity enters Dollars $US and the Euro to quote only are those, the fluctuations in the oil price, the causes of structural order either they are due to the speculation of some big actors ? What is the share of responsibility of banks and oil Companies in what we call the "peak oil" ? Where from result these possible artificial increases of crude oil prices ? Because the price of this one on the world market of contracts Eventually totally exploded ! Is it the imminent threat of a war against Iran ?
On the other hand, another explanation presented by some, would be that the price increases irreparably since the point of the "peak oil" would have been exceeded according to a fictitious curve of "Gauss" where half of all the known world oil reserves would have been exhausted, so causing a decrease of the quantity of oil to exploit and pulling increasing prices.
In reality, whether it is justifications by the war risk or that of the overtaking of the "peak oil", these two explanations seem completely erroneous !
Indeed, during the historic increase of crude oil prices during the summer, 2008 (the oil had reached " a peak " of the $147US the barrel on futures markets), the going price of the oil increases with regard to speculative actions led on markets (by speculative funds), and certain big banks as Citigroup, JP Morgan Chase, and especially, GoldMan Sachs. (That we find every time there is " some cash " to make without any efforts, while betting on an operation in 100 % sure !).
We want it for proof, during the exchanges of the forward contracts " ICE ", the crude oil price (Brent Crude) passed at least of $100US the barrel in the beginning of October, 2011, in more of $126US the barrel an April 2012, is a 25 % increase ..., and is, in December 2012, in $112US today approximately the barrel, and it is not finished ... ! In 2009, the price of the barrel of crude oil belonged to $US30 ! (Thirty $US !).
In conclusion, year 2013 will be the worse than the previous ones and graver still than year 2012 !
Indeed, we can summarize it so :
. the mirage of the resumption in the United States dissipates.
. the political system of the United States suffers from a general paralysis.
. from 2007 till 2012 : 6 years which shook banks ; it is not ended in 2013 ... !
. a global financial war, an escalation in the Persian Arab Gulf and the blatant threats against the system of petrodollars.
. a pursuit of the running crazy about military expenditures (according to the last data of the SIPRI, see by the link "Libraries") (During the time which you will put reading this " Forecast Notes Year 2013 ", we shall have spent in the world 10 million dollars US furthermore in weapons, armed and war: it is not to put them to Museums or on parking lots !).
. the arms sale by countries of the European Union bound for Arab countries, of which Saudi Arabia, amounts to 3,3 billions of Euro, only for year 2010 ! Paradoxically, they are countries having the duty to protect the Peace, namely the members of the Security Council of the UNO ; Such as the United States, Russia, France, China, the United Kingdom, etc.) which are countries the biggest exporters of weapons !
. the acceleration of the western retreat of the " Afghan pool of mud ", succeeding the "revolutionary" fire of the Middle East, historically subjected to the balance of power between Major powers, since the end the Cold war, is a real " geopolitical and geostrategic powder magazine " !
. a dangerous military escalation in the Middle East: confrontation Russia-United States in Syria ?
. beyond this military confrontation in the Middle East between Russia and the United States in Syria, first stage and prelude to the aggression then the attack of Iran ... ? Activating the World War III ... ?
Will Europe and the European Nations know how to "seize" the new opportunities which are going to open to them soon, during the year 2013 ?
We shall attend a series of " strategic uprisings " and " major geostrategic transformations " ..., which are going to affect Europe closely and which will cause a boost in the current geopolitical changes, on the scale of the World, since 2008 !
A New geopolitical and geostrategic balance is outlined around the ways of routing of the gas, beyond the oil, whether it is within the framework of the "BRICS" (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), or the other Alliances of the Eurozone such as the "PIGS" (Portugal, Ireland, Greece, Spain), or "PIIGS" (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain), often despised ... ; and the financial and economic situation does not stop degrading and deteriorating for Great Britain on these two plans !
Indeed, we attend the terminal phase of the crisis/recession concerning this voracious financial globalization. It is the stage where the most radical, (in the extremes of the political spectre), find themselves forced to try to defend itself in front of the death ...!
And guess the " last find to try " " to boost the growth " who is not even " soft " but rather " zero " ... ? Even " denial " ! It would be about the launch of vouchers in Euro and about a superlative public loan (the loan CHARLEMAGNE) for the "Eurozone", at the level of 500 billion Euro in 10 years, with a 5 % interest rate guaranteed by the European Monetary System (EMS), with two objectives :
. decrease the level of the debt in the "Eurozone" below the threshold of 30 % of the sovereign debt, to try to reduce potentially the influence of the international financial markets checked(controlled) by Wall Street and City.
. stimulate the growth of the "Eurozone" by means of structural investments in infrastructures (education, search(research), health, public transport, etc.) ... just the opposite of what recommends the "neoliberalism" ...!
This " Sacred Charlemagne " ! We could not leave him quiet ... ?
And the " Russian Loans of 1917 " ... it does not remind you anything ?
And do not forget to ask you the essential question :
What is the impact of the current crisis on the real Economy ... ?
Finally, the " Economic Forecast Note YEAR OF 2012 " being always of current events, we deeply recommend you to consult it by the following link :
. YEAR 2012 : http://www.omggwo.com/new/english/year%202012
That it is allowed us to wish to you a Maid and a Happy Year of 2013 !
December 28 th, 2012
Dr. Marc LAMBINET, Ph.D
Observatoire Mondial Géostratégique S.A. Luxembourg