YEAR 2016

Year 2016 is the continuity of the 2015s and 2014 on the economic, financial and social plans, because we are always in systemic and structural crisis thus crisis/recession/transfer which continues while deteriorating. This year of 2016 will know deep transformations and major events. The current and not ended programs by "restructuring" of the world Economy have not yet affected their ends.

The words drafted in the beginning of 2009s, 2010, 2011, on 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015 are always effective and accessible by the following links :

. YEAR 2009 :
. YEAR 2010 :
. YEAR 2011 :
. YEAR 2012 :
. YEAR 2013 :
. YEAR 2014 :
. YEAR 2015 :

Year 2016 can be summarized in the following way, taking into account the chronology of the events announced previously then arisen during 2009s, 2010, 2011, on 2012, 2013, 2014, on 2015 in this crisis/recession/transfer :

. difficulty facing the most urgent world problems.
. difficulty of collaboration between the United States and Russia even China about the fight against terrorism : the U.S.A. estimates their new strategy in the face of Russia and in China.
. impossibility of "peaceful coexistence" between the superpowers and to exceed this rudimentary compromise that is the detente : this concept is old-fashioned and belongs from now on to the Past.

As well as :

. confrontations more and more dangerous for the Middle East, of which Iran, as well as in Asia.
. deliberate expansionism and incontested hegemony of the United States in the World within the framework of preventive and unilateral wars.
. "strategy of the global chaos", real concept and not deprived of sense made by actions and by reactions, to try to dominate better the World. (We approach this aspect on one of my Theses, to see below EHESS - Paris - FRANCE, on October 08th, 2013).

It would be due, among others, in :

. the attempt of seizure and the total control of hydrocarbon reserves (oil + gas) whatever is the region.
. the attempt of seizure and the total control of the production of drug whatever is the region because getting enormous net incomes.

The map of the Middle East is being "redrawn" under our eyes, on all year round 2016 and later , 100 years old after the secret Agreements Sykes-Picot signed on May 16th, 1916 , between France and Great Britain planning the division of the Middle East on the spoils of Ottoman Empire. Would not the United States and Russia (even China and Iran) substitute themselves for the old colonizing Powers that were Great Britain and France in the last century ? Are not the latter in search of an Empire which they do not have any more ... ? As Turkey besides ... "Arab Springs" and "Arabic revolts" since 2011 until our days are they "spontaneous" or simply done prepared, planed, manipulated ? What was the role of Major powers in these "Arab Springs" to varying degrees ?

The multipolar reorganization of the Middle East is in progress, like it or not, and this period of the "Arab Spring" comes to an end from now on. New partition of Syria, Iraq, Turkey, Saudi Arabia ? We go towards a complete reversal situation in the Middle East. Every country, whatever it is, is so much worried to analyze the position of his own State in this hundred-year-old conflict of the Middle East where it seems to ignore the global negotiations between the U.S.A. and Russia ! Case to be followed ...

See in this connection the summary of the Thesis defense of Doctorate on the Middle East supported on October 08th, 2013 to the EHESS (FRENCH SCHOOL FOR ADVANCED STUDIES IN THE SOCIAL SCIENCES) - Paris - FRANCE :

"Summarized by the Thesis defense of Doctorate on the Middle East to the EHESS - Paris - FRANCE, in 10/08/2013"

Because this hundred-year-old Israeli-Palestinian conflict in the Middle East is far from being ended ... since the famous Declaration of Balfour.

During year 2016 we shall also attend in :

. the collapse of the international diplomacy.
. the ignorance and the incompetence of the persons in charge of the foreign politics not realizing consequences of their gestures, acts and decisions.
. the incoherence of actions carried out on the grounds of the conflicts, supposed to find solutions to the fight against terrorism and the escalation of violence.

Year 2016 will have also in the background :

. the worsening of the conflicts in answer to 14 years of imperialist bloody interventions in Afghanistan, in Iraq, in Somalia, in Libya, in Syria, in the Yemen and in North Africa, to quote only those : the Middle East and Asia know 27 armed conflicts for new Agreements "Sykes-Picot" in prospect.
. the military escalation resulting in a direct confrontation between the coalition managed by the U.S.A. and Russian Federation in answer to the various actions and threaten with this coalition managed by the U.S.A. Indeed, there is an obsession of Russia "as State aggressor" and China "as economic rival Partner".
. the continuation of the World War III, between the U.S.A. (and the coalition) and/or Russia and China (implying Iran, Turkey, Qatar, Israel, Saudi Arabia, E.A.U ., etc.), and many others : we had already mentioned it during our Projected Notes of year 2014 and 2015. This one already began several years ago and "is going full swing" ..., but as long as there were not "official announcements" on the radio/television, we make as if ...

As well as :

. the development of the wars of low intensity of the XXIth century while waiting for "the final fight"... (A Bill in the U.S.A. - NDAA - would give 607 billion dollars $US to the Pentagon and would forbid the closure of Guantánamo)..
. the global militarization which becomes intensified : the world nuclear stocks are maintained in a state of high operational alert in spite of the announced reductions (their power does not stop increasing according to Stockholm International Peace Research Institute - SIPRI - Stockholm - Sweden), arms sales increase manifestly and speed up.
. all the countries arm themselves and get ready for the World War III while this one has already begun ... here and there : beyond the known events and to come, it is enough to analyze the continuation of the mad drive of military expenditures begun already for several years, for the benefit of whom ? and of what ?

Furthermore, we shall also see throughout year 2016 :

. the continuation and strengthening of the emergence of the countries of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), as well as of the OCS (Shanghai Cooperation Organization, integrating China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan).
. the continuation of the economic internationalization of China already committed in 2015 and before : his chinese strategy is formalized around new concepts such as the "new silk road" on one hand, and the creation of an Asiatic Bank of Investments in infrastructures piloted entirely by Beijing, on the other hand. (Continuation of the use of the yuan in the global economy "undermining" the dollar $US while maintaining it temporarily).

See in this connection the International Current events thanks to the following link :

International Press review 24H/24H and 7D/7D

Also, we can observe during year 2016 :

. the strengthening of the powers which matter more and more such as Russia, China, India, at the same time on the financial, economic, military plan : the world is multipolar.
. the temptation to monopolize what remains of raw materials, oil + gas, rare metals, etc.
. a growth forecast superior to the reality because it seems that we forgot to ask ourselves the essential question : what is the impact of the crisis/current recession/transfer on the real Economy ... ?

Indeed, the world situation for year 2016 on the economic plan reflects :

. a reserved economic situation : stock-exchange surge followed by a collapse.
. a collapse of the American economy in the big "displeasure" of the Federal Reserve Bank (FED) in spite of the false reality in which the Americans live for several years (fragility of the employment, the insecure and/or temporary jobs, the people without jobs discouraged from finding one, etc...). (See Shadowstats - USA).

And in front of :

. an increase of the participation in the economy of the BRICS in direct competition with the U.S.A. and the European Union, and in spite of three devaluations of the Yuan in August, 2015. (It was a test of the increase in power of China that will continue at the moment ..., exchanges it chinese remain widely bound to the quotation of the dollar $US, until when ?).

As well as :

. a risk of deflation as well for the U.S.A. as for the European Union (among which Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Greece, etc.) and also Canada, Mexico, South America (Argentina, Brazil, Venezuela, etc.) and many others. China is not shielded from the recession unless it strengthens its ascent as world power while solving its internal economic contradictions without putting in danger the regional cohesion ... (The chinese change is in the air ...).
. a highlighting of the energy impact of the Agreement on Iranian nuclear power revealing losers and winners : Case to be followed ...

This world Economy, beyond the systemic and structural, will still know economic destabilizations and collapses of stock exchanges, owed more to financial frauds than to result of a "mechanism of the market" activated by the weakness of the Economy of a country because we are in full financial war (announced already in our previous Projected Notes - Economics Forecasts Notes) causing deep geopolitical and geostrategic transformations.

Consequently we can ask ourselves the following questions always remained unsettled ... :

. do the central Banks corrupt the reale Economy ?
. is the increase in prices of stock markets due to the monetary creation of the central Banks to favor the "well-to-do" ?
. is the stock market a swollen bubble artificially having ANY real foundation ? Thus ready to burst at any time ?

So, this world economic situation is going to engender during year 2016 :

. the continuation of the higher mentioned deflation , for U.S.A ., Japan, Canada, the European Union (among which Greece, Spain, Portugal, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Italy, etc.). (The deflation is the worst nightmare of the U.S.A.).
. the continuation of redundancies in numerous business sectors.
. the continuation of injections of liquid assets in the financial system in the biggest profit of the big Investments Banks (Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, J.P. Morgan Chase, FED, etc.).
. the lack of release of the massive investments in numerous business sectors with the exception of that of the armament.
. the lack of stimulation of job creation (permanent, "indefinite", and not precarious, temporary or unnecessary to make the statistics vary : thus, temporary and/or precarious continuation of the job creation).
. the increase of the deflationary risks on the Economy because impossibility to stop the fast acceleration of the stock market at the risk of explosion of the stock-exchange Bubble (see previously).
. the poverty of million families and workers.

So, some "socioeconomic indicators" are still confirmed such as :

. the continuation of the reduction in the real estate market (with the exception of some cities and artificially swollen geographical areas).
. the increase of the price of raw materials : we are always in crisis/recession/transfer.
. the use stressed by the Yuan as the world reserve currency : today, this one is the second currency the most used for the financing of the trade, and the fourth most requested to realize cross-border payments. (Source : SWIFT).
. the disappearance of some economic activities by the liquidation of numerous companies : thus, the continuation of the increase of the unemployment rate by the job cuts in spite of precarious and\or temporary job creations.
. the continuation of the systematic preparations for this Third World War III by the analysis of the monthly activity of military-industrial complexes : a military conflict with China and/or Russia is inevitable, this perspective becoming the driving strength of the tactical and strategic planning of the Pentagon - U.S.A.

Besides what was previously expressed and to summarize year 2016, this one will also see :

. the continuation of the "big global rearmament" already accelerating in 2015 and continuing in 2016, in 2017 and beyond : the process of global militarization becomes intensified since 1996 until our days. New stocks of armaments and associated military expenditures.
. the increase ceaselessly military expenditures in a large number of country : more than 5 billion dollars $US a day are dedicated to the war or to its preparation. These become intensified and are on the increase constant since 2014. In 2013, these world military expenditures represent a 1747 billion dollar total $US. (Source : SIPRI - Stockholm - Sweden). (See our Economics Forecasts Notes previous).
. the complete and total submission of the Governments in the requirements of the military-industrial lobbies with the public money naturally. A shape of militarism develops and constant pressures are applied on all Governments of the Planet.

And also :

. the continuation of the arms race because countries are committed in a "endless gearing" : in 2013, there is a weapon for 10 people in the world and 1249 industries of armament in 90 countries ...
. the additional expenses for the war against the terror : NATO/NATO, military wing of the West, knows astronomical military expenditures.
. the growth of the military expenditures of the Members of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) or "emerging countries" : the BRICS matters among 15 countries having most military large expenditures with the exception of South Africa (from 2001 till 2013)(Source : SIPRI).

Furthermore, we shall observe :

. the economic and social consequences of this arms race, the role of the national armies and their strong influences in all the economic, social, cultural branches or still their participation in the social and cultural activities. (Celebrations of the Memory in such or such War, ...).
. the obstinacy of the "increasing tensions since 2008" in Asia, where the Peace is "precarious and fragile" : between India and Pakistan, both Koreas, China and Japan, every border countries of China, between the U.S.A. and China, etc.
. the attempts of destabilization of certain oil-producing countries and/or gas, or still possessing wealth in their basements, in Africa, in Latin America, in the Middle East, ...

After all, these attempts of destabilizations of all the Region of the Middle East, North Africa, Central Asia and the South, including Iran, Pakistan and India, would not they be the general strategic objective of the United States and "its military wing", NATO/NATO, in hegemonic purposes ? The question remains unsettled ... Case to be followed ...

And all this without counting :

. the costs caused by the necessary and current renewable energies as well as the diverse natural disasters ...
. the current climate change and to come of which is the object the COP 21 in France in November, 2015 : will this Conference give birth to a mouse ? Causing inevitably relative Trade agreements in the "food factor" ...
. that it is necessary to specify that the increase of the production, the trade and the consumption of foodstuffs are big broadcasting issuers of greenhouse gas ! While favoring the promotion of the industrial agriculture for the export to the detriment of farms and the local food systems ... as well as the development of the international supermarkets and the highly transformed food !
. would have it not "deceit" about the climate ? The agriculture seems poisoned : is not it to contribute to the depopulation and to the human extinction ?
. the epidemics and the virus such as Ebola ; the terrorist groups whatever they are named ; the cybernetic war presents to the everyday life ; etc...

And the European Union, or simply Europe in all that ? She seems to be conspicuously absent ... while trying to look for a "Greatness" going back maybe to Charlemagne.

As usual, the Reader must retain : everywhere and on the whole Planet, the objectives are only essentially economic, strategic and even geostrategic ... and the adaptation to the new reality of this multipolar world is a question of survival for certain powers on the decline imagining the outcome thanks to confrontations adventurers ! Furthermore, we are 7 billion individuals concerned all by the situation created by one or saying "Elites" : would they lead us "to the slaughterhouse" ?

Finally, let us not forget the essential question yet : what is the impact of the crisis/current recession/transfer on the real Economy ...? And for "the unbelieving" we find ourselves on December 31st, 2016 ... to make "the point" on all which must to be briefly presented.

November 20 th, 2015

Administrateur Unique
Observatoire Mondial Géostratégique S.A. Luxembourg